ALT (ASX) Can they get there?

Originally posted by PeasantOne ↑

Having decided ALT will probably take off, for the sake of having a concept of direction I've tried to determine a realistic market by getting figures for moderate to severe sufferers i.e. those who'll be willing to pay. No shortage of studies out there but results are all over the place due to different methodologies and definition of incontinence. However I've noted some of the more concise studies which could be cross referenced and matched up.
- 150m globally. (this is 5-6% of females over 15. 6% was a fairly consistent number)
- 3-17%. (5% is 150m; 3% is 90m; 10% is 300m; 17% is not realistic imo)
- Up to 10%. (maybe in the long term with excellent marketing, but 1 in 20 or 1 in 100 seems ok)
1% was also a consistent number and this sits comfortably with me.
30-40m sufferers in US & EU. (1% is 3.5m)

UI related operations - 10k in UK; 400k in US. Per capita those figures are contradictory; initially I was going to scrub the US figure, but 400k is one quarter of 1% so I believe it's the UK number which should be ignored. So - 400k being worst of the worst times 2 for Western Europe etc ( our more immediate markets) = 800k sales.
A good study indicated 50% of sales will be from worst cases and 50% from the rest. Applying that to the operations gives 1.6m sales. In a recent post I determined about 1.3m. One million sales will give us great success.
On a global basis this would translate to 8-9m needing operations, which is 5-6% of 150m; 15-20m including moderate sufferers.

In all 1.5m sales seems minimum. 9m seems the number possible long term, say post 2022. 4.5m gives us about $60m p.a.
The great beauty is the annual subscription model. In 1st world countries moderate to severe sufferers will pay up to $1400 p.a. depending on degree of resolution. Pericoach is priced to sell.
A couple of factors to support all this - women are increasingly open to discussing incontinence so word of mouth sales will be a factor; women do not want an operation.

So the above is a bit vague and rough, but it is a guide and is conservative. If pericoach works even reasonably we'll do very well indeed.

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Apreciate the time you took for this post. I was loosing confidence but you made me hold on for while. Cheers

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