VAU (ASX) Can VAULT crack 50 cents Monday?

Originally posted by Greatone: ↑

I don't agree with a lot of posts on this site. Everybody seems to take aim at the Vault management for not spruiking the company enough and blaming the low share price on that. I don't agree.
I am not sure who of you have seen the comparison table on the WGX hotcopper thread? I am not going to steal somebody else's work and re post it here but i recommend you take a look at it. Its one of the best pieces of information on all of HC and it compares many of the gold companies on many metrics.
Vault, in my opinion, benchmarks very well against PNR. Both Vault and PNR have management that doesnt spruik the company hard enough. Both have management that seem reasonable competent at producing gold but not very good at spruiking the share price. Both companies have a similar AISC and both have a bit of a growth profile but not too compelling.
Vault is about 4 times the size of PNR in terms of gold ounces produced and so, using that benchmark, absent the drag of hedges, Vault should have an EV of about $4B or about 4 times the PNR EV. Including cash and bullion but ignoring hedges Vault should have a market capitalisation in the range of $4.8B or be trading at about 70cents per share. This $4.8B estimate includes the EV of $4B plus cash and bullion of circa $600M at 1 January plus an allowance for cash and bullion generated this quarter.
This Vault/PNR benchmark is a reasonably good one in my opinion excluding hedges which Vault has but PNR doesnt really have much of. I get the reason that Vault needed to take out hedges to obtain finance and am not criticising the management for that but the reality is those hedges are a big drag.
So by benchmarking against PNR (which is cheap itself) Vault looks really cheap.
The only way the share price looks reasonable is as a multiple of EBIT. Using the last HY numbers, Vault is trading at roughly 4 x (EV/EBIT). Using that benchmark Vault's share price looks reasonable against other similar goldies. So I presume this is why the Vault share price trades where it does.
Except that the EBIT includes the HY hedging impact. So applying a multiplier to it assumes the hedging will continue forever. Except it wont.
So..... the Vault share price looks perfectly sensible assuming a multiple of EBIT except that the EBIT doesnt look a sensible thing to multiply.
Another way of saying this is that the Vault share price is being too heavily discounted because of the hedging situation. Mathematically that makes much more sense to me than simply sledging the management. All of the criticisms levelled here at the Vault management also apply to the PNR management except that the PNR share price benchmarks much higher. So the only material difference in the benchmark is the hedging and so the conclusion I draw is that the hedging is the thing making the difference.
I get the emotional feeling of wanting the share price to be higher and blaming the management who don't seem to be pushing hard enough. But the numbers don't look to me to be saying that the management are the big reason. I think its more about the hedging.

Expand

Mate,

I don’t know why we need a 5 page word salad of nothing to tell us ex SLR holders that our VAU shares are fairly valued. Seriously what is your agenda?

Let’s see the share price hit 50c May LY and is now 45c with gold valued $1500 more.

Insiders selling, forecasting lower and no contingency plans to mitigate the impact of the hedges.

Where is Jean and Sam to bring this newbie up to speed.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
53	1450213	36.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1450213

36.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
37.0¢	548657	33

Price($)

Vol.

No.

37.0¢

548657

No.	Vol.	Price($)
48	1458133	0.365
46	1479146	0.360
37	915835	0.355
39	1302519	0.350
12	654342	0.345

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1458133

0.365

1479146

0.360

915835

0.355

1302519

0.350

654342

0.345

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.370	464631	31
0.375	3019791	76
0.380	726183	31
0.385	576706	16
0.390	390751	17

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.370

464631

0.375

3019791

0.380

726183

0.385

576706

0.390

390751

(20min delay)
Last 36.8¢		Change 0.003(0.68%)		Mkt cap ! $2.533B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
37.0¢	37.5¢	36.8¢	$9.314M	25.27M

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