GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

Regardless if you are trading or investing, the position...

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    Regardless if you are trading or investing, the position shouldn't be about whether you are right or wrong. You can be right but still lose money. It should always be about if you can survive the stop you put in place. Some pick a number to enter as stop placement, others use a more reflective means but it is there for a reason.

    You don't seem to have a strategy besides if you think it is going down you short immediately.

    Playing the FOMC speech, gold hit resistance and if you go back to the charts the smart strategy was to take it right at the top days before that speech. Taking a trade prior to speech then expecting the result to go your way is a gamble regardless whatever fundamentals was pointing your bias. No one knows how hawkish or dovish the contents are until the market reads it. At the release you either survive the stop you place or not.

    Technically after such a large bull bar , a little sell off is too premature to conclude the run is over. Granted price is struggling to gather continuation momentum when it is reaching near a strong resistance on the current bullish swing.

    Have a look at audusd 1 hr Asian session yesterday. See that lovely reversal pin bar right at the high off the round number 0.76? I did a scalp post pin bar off this pin which is dangerous for many reasons too long to discuss here. I knew from experience it is very dangerous to short post big fundamental generated momentum but interim there always is a short term profit taking. Look what happens going into London open. Gold looks similar but spaced over the day. I am not predicting the top in gold because I never actually know besides hindsight!

    It is possible for gold to dislocate from other correlated fx pairs and it would make gold the odd one out. Correlation is always a fluid game. All major fx pairs are follow through moving against USD including oil. That is the consensus correlation. Gold broken down correlation you think? If you think you spotted that break in correlation then perhaps that is your edge supporting your bias view. Good luck with the short. Just saying...
 
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