You'll have to do better than that Boris. I only started accumulating this Monday. Prior to that I had only posted on the STO threads in February and March of last year and had a sell sentiment on STO at $7.93. Below is a quote of one of my comments from a post I made in March last year.
"It might be one report in a sea of thousands, but it contains some basic facts about the current US stocks and production of oil from the statistical arm of the US Energy department that one either has to believe or dismiss as false.
"Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, increased by 8.43 million barrels to 434.1 million through Feb. 20, the highest since 1982 in weekly data gathered by the Energy Information Administration. The nation’s output rose to 9.29 million barrels a day, the highest in weekly data gathered since 1983 by the Energy Department’s statistical arm."
The current facts if you believe them don't look promising for the short term outlook. The futures market for oil is not easy to rig as oil can't be hidden in vaults or warehouses. Markets will have to face the over supply head on as oil costs money to store physically, as well as the financial capital involved. All good if your storage cost is low and the interest rate on your capital is low and you've sold the oil forward into a higher price, but not great if the expected future price increases don't materialise, as the guy who's obligation it is to take it from you would then be forced to sell for less than he paid or sit on the oil for longer with all the attendant costs involved. Its up to the big US oil producers with the low debt ratios to determine how long they want to hold one of the biggest booby prizes in history. Given the size of the investments I doubt they will let go of that prize no matter how embarrassing it is to hold. They are better to let go of it and go back to fighting wars in the middle east IMO."
Then in September of last year my view on STO softened a bit and I said this with a neutral sentiment at $4.19.
"Been watching the fall and STO is coming onto my radar so I thought I might join the discussion although I don't know very much about the ins and outs of the company.
Just one point that people should be aware about the Euro notes if they don't already know (and I've discussed this point in regard to DLS as well) is that it is common practice from what I understand for note holders to practice delta-neutral hedging strategies to preserve the value of their "notes/loans" and try and keep the coupon rate on their "notes/loans" fixed should the share price of the company they are "investing" in fall after the notes are issued. I really no full bottle on this practice or how the Euro notes on STO are structured but have written a brief summary about what I understand about this practice in a few posts on the DLS threads (I would appreciate any other educated discussion on the subject if anyone has any more specific knowledge or understanding of this hedging practice). I understand the Euro notes are exchange traded in London???? so this secondary market is what allows and facilitates this type of hedging strategy.
If you read my interpretation and agree with it....the upshot is that not every shorter in the market has malicious intent. Some are taking short positions to protect the other side of their investment/trade. In fact I think it must be a tricky game for the delta-neutral hedgers in these sharply falling markets because they run the risk of helping to compound shorting activity which could lead to self perpetuating falls (from their own activities, long traders who have capitulated and more enthused malicious short traders who smell blood) that end up mispricing the stock that they are "invested" in to the downside. This only compounds the company's troubles and places more pressure on the value of the notes they are trying to protect.
I've seen some discussion on the redeeming clauses on the Euro notes. I've only read what people have said here but in terms of shorting activity if a capital raising is forced on the company to payout the issuers of the notes by a downgrade of STO's investment rating, then after such an event one would expect that the number of shorts in the stock would drop as the delta-neutral hedges/shorts over the Euro notes exit the market.
Just a thought.
Hard game picking the bottom on oilers but good opportunities for the longer term IMO.
I've only ever posted on STO threads 5 times during February and March of this year and my sentiment was sell at around the $7.93 level. Now I'm think my sentiment has changed to watch very carefully and wait until after the FOMC meeting on the 17 September to see if the world is going to end or not. Pity they don't have a box on HC to tick for that."
I've now got a long term buy sentiment and that's what I'm doing. Not like you who sits on the sidelines and pontificates based on opinions that will only be wrong 0.00000001% of the time.
Eshmun
STO Price at posting:
$2.56 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)