Helps my head to do some forecasts when looking at companies. Re BHP
Can IO (currently $68) go below $60? For 1st time in over 3 decades steel prod in China has declined albeit slightly. Is this an aberration? Thing is, even if steel production plateaus it coincides with a massive increase in IO supply. Assuming many small IO producers go belly-up, the increase in IO from big 4 will more than compensate. So yes... IO can def go below $60 smackeroos.
Will it? My guesstimate is 80-90% probability IO will hit USD60 within 6 months.
Can coal make a comeback in price after more than halving? Short answer: no chance. Yet Newman fantacises re world's biggest open-cut coal mine in Galilee basin. It's not going to happen. Already world prod is sufficient although higher grade Aussie producers will always have a market. NSW exports up almost 20% in 2014.
Crude oil. Currently $46, can WTI go below $40? In theory it certainly can.
Will it? my guesstimate is a 25% probability within 6 months. Reckon it will stay in 45-65 range with 50-60 the most likely at 60%.
Can BHP go below $20 within 12 months? certainly can imo.
Will it? Only rate it a 20% probability. best guess is BHP $24-27 range by end 2015 with 60% confidence level.
BHP SP closely tied to AUD. Oz economy stronger than most. I can't even guesstimate where currency will be in 6-12 months. Too many factors.
Any others willing to put head on the block?
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- BHP
- can/will Iron Ore, Oil, BHP keep falling?
can/will Iron Ore, Oil, BHP keep falling?
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 120 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add BHP (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$42.43 |
Change
-0.350(0.82%) |
Mkt cap ! $215.1B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$42.72 | $42.83 | $42.31 | $238.5M | 5.613M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 117 | $42.42 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$42.44 | 2000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 117 | 42.420 |
1 | 100 | 42.410 |
5 | 897 | 42.400 |
2 | 4009 | 42.370 |
4 | 1084 | 42.350 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
42.440 | 2000 | 1 |
42.450 | 5560 | 4 |
42.480 | 6631 | 2 |
42.500 | 2518 | 5 |
42.510 | 6631 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 24/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
BHP (ASX) Chart |