Helps my head to do some forecasts when looking at companies. Re...

Helps my head to do some forecasts when looking at companies. Re BHP

Can IO (currently $68) go below $60? For 1st time in over 3 decades steel prod in China has declined albeit slightly. Is this an aberration? Thing is, even if steel production plateaus it coincides with a massive increase in IO supply. Assuming many small IO producers go belly-up, the increase in IO from big 4 will more than compensate. So yes... IO can def go below $60 smackeroos.
Will it? My guesstimate is 80-90% probability IO will hit USD60 within 6 months.

Can coal make a comeback in price after more than halving? Short answer: no chance. Yet Newman fantacises re world's biggest open-cut coal mine in Galilee basin. It's not going to happen. Already world prod is sufficient although higher grade Aussie producers will always have a market. NSW exports up almost 20% in 2014.

Crude oil. Currently $46, can WTI go below $40? In theory it certainly can.
Will it? my guesstimate is a 25% probability within 6 months. Reckon it will stay in 45-65 range with 50-60 the most likely at 60%.

Can BHP go below $20 within 12 months? certainly can imo.
Will it? Only rate it a 20% probability. best guess is BHP $24-27 range by end 2015 with 60% confidence level.

BHP SP closely tied to AUD. Oz economy stronger than most. I can't even guesstimate where currency will be in 6-12 months. Too many factors.

Any others willing to put head on the block?