Just based on commodity price sensitivity analysis for 2015 compared to 2014 FYs:
Iron Ore: Dropped Average price of $45 ($120 to $75) @ 135m per $1 = -$6B
Oil: Dropped Average price of $45 ($105 to $60) @ 50m per $1 = -$2.25B
That's -$8.25B or about 60% of earnings lost.
There are further factors such as coal, gas, copper commodity prices, exchange rates and productivity, volume and cost controls, but they will not shift things too much compared to the above 2 factors.
If BHP announces 140 EPS (example only) and commodities are still at current levels, you'd think $24 will have to be retested at minimum.
can/will Iron Ore, Oil, BHP keep falling?, page-14
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