can you please not moderate my post, page-22

Apologies to lord elpus as he is not able to reply on this forum unfortunately IMO


Here is his valuation from Feb 24 when the sp was $2.03.




http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=840759#3788411

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............."There are quite a few doubting Thomases coming out of the woodwork and attacking my valuation of Aus$13 to Aus $17 per share.

These figures are not plucked from the air. These figures are based on recent real-world events.


The figures are also based on some assumptions and if any of these assumptions prove false then of course the final figures will be compromised.


Let's go through the assumptions:

Assumption 1 : It is assumed that between Zone 1 and Zone 2, 200 million pounds will be proven up.

Assumption 2 : The George Forest purchase of US$7 per pound (C$9/lb) for a lower concentration deposit is a reasonable purchase in today's market.

Assumption 3 : The Australian / USA exchange rate remains at approximately 0.65 (Aus$1 = US$0.65)

Assumption 4 : At the time of take-over EXT will have 218 million shares on issue.

Assumption 5 : Resources with equal estimated mass but greater concentrations will be valued more highly than resources with lower concentrations (all else being equal).

Now, do any of these assumptions seem unreasonable? If so, please point out how they are unreasonable.

Let us continue.

If the above assumptions are fair then let's do the sums.

200 Million pounds for Zone 1 and Zone 2 at US$7 per pound gives us US$1.4 Billion.

How easy was that?

Now US$1.4 Billion = Aus$2.15 Billion

Again, an easy calculation to make.

OK now for the final assumption, 218 Million shares means that Aus$2.15 Billion DIVIDED by 218 Million shares = Aus $9.88 per share.

Now the final assumption. Because I believe there is value in the greatly superior concentrations at Rossing South, and because I believe Zone and Zone 2 combined will exceed 200 million pounds, I see the figure of Aus$9.88 as bottom end.

I think it is quite fair to assume that it will exceed this figure and end up somewhere in the range of Aus$13 to Aus$17

I now invite any comments on how I have been unreasonable.".........

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I recalculated his bottom end valuation to $Aus 8.07 based on these changes in his assumptions:-

Assumption 3 : Aussie $ now approx 0.755. The stronger $AUS certainly has taken it's toll!

Assumption 4 : approx 229 million shares

So...$US 1.4 billion = $AUS 1.85 billion divided by 229 million = $AUS 8.07 per share.


---Increase his assumption 1 to 259 million pounds (very plausible)and the bottom end valuation becomes $AUS 10.09


Looks to me like there's plenty of upside for the med to long term.


Geez,even the professional analysts hardly ever agree on their valuations!


This from Weisel's report today. (their 12 month target was $CAN 6.00

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.............."We are increasing our estimated resource estimate for Rossing South to 210MMlb U3O8
In Exhibit 5, we have conducted a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate the potential of the
Rossing South resource. This demonstrates that there is significant upside potential beyond our
12-month target should Extract delineate a larger resource."..............
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Cheers all!