Good work.
May I point out,
LKE, project ownership (Kachi) will be reducing to 75% if proposed DLE is workable according to the recent ASX announcement as their DLE provider will take 25% ownership for providing the DLE solution; also their NPV of $2.1B is based on battery grade lithium carbonate price at US$15,500/ton.
GLN, HMW currently has an indicated HMW JORC resource of 2.3 million tons LCE at grade of 946mg/l Li with low impurities (mg/Li ~1.4) with additional exploration upside of 0.5 million to 1 million tons LCE. The payback for HMW, 4.3 years, was based on a low lithium carbonate price of US$11,687/t and annual production of 20ktpa.
As initial PEA was based on very conservative assumptions including brine concentrates at 4.8% (likely to achieve 6% Li (12.9% Li2O)), annual production capacity is potentially increasing to 25ktpa. If used similar lithium carbonate price, HMW payback would be less than 2 years.
Another very interesting point is, if we were going to sell lithium chloride concentrates (6% Li or 32% LCE), the sale price would still be significantly higher than spodumene concentrate price, because lithium chloride concentrates is very high grade (32% LCE) and pricing mechanism would be similar to copper concentrates (see below):
"Copper concentrates
Copper concentrates are produced by the beneficiation, or upgrading, of copper ore. A typical copper ore would be 0.7% to 2% copper, a typical copper concentrate would grade around 25% to 35% copper.
Copper concentrates are either smelted and refined in-house, or sold to custom smelters. The concentrate may be smelted to produce blister copper for sale to a custom refinery, or the blister copper may be refined to cathode, which is then sold into the market.
Concentrates sales contracts are specialised and very complex. Concentrates are typically sold on a CIF, CIFFO (Cost, Insurance, Freight Free Out, buyer pays for unloading) or FOB (Free Onboard Vessel) basis.
Concentrate value is first determined by agreeing upon payable copper content. This takes account of smelter losses and will typically be 95% to 97% of the contained copper. The next deduction will be the treatment charge, payable as USD per dry metric tonne of concentrate. There is also a refining charge payable as USD per pound or tonne of copper metal.
There are also penalty charges for deleterious elements. Typical elements which attract a penalty charge are: magnesium, aluminium, chlorine, cobalt, nickel, zinc, arsenic, mercury, selenium, antimony and bismuth. Some elements, such as uranium, could render the concentrate unsaleable. There are also some elements, particularly gold and silver, that are payable.
Finally, there will usually be a price participation factor which will allow the smelter to increase the treatment and refining charges should the copper price increase above a pre-determined level."
Let's see capex would be US$200m, HMW to produce 23,500 tons LCE per year equivalent lithium chloride concentrates, then revenue could be around 70% of the full lithium carbonate price based on my uneducated estimation, at lithium carbonate price of US$16,000/t, selling lithium chloride concentrates, HMW would be still able to generate ~US$210m EBITDA, imo, still very robust economic merits.
All imo.
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