DVP 0.25% $1.96 develop global limited

Canaccord Research, page-3

  1. 937 Posts.
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    They have included a $70m project equity raise at 16c, so 50c is effectively fully diluted to the max.
    I've received the front page below, but haven't seen the full note.

    Site visit highlights a well serviced, development ready project. We continue to see Sulphur Springs as one of the most advanced zinc/copper opportunities in the base metals space. Despite volatile metal prices and limited access to capital over the past few years, VXR has done a good job of maintaining progress on the project, which in our view should be at a financing decision in FY19. The site visit highlighted a development ready project, and while it has been decades since the initial discovery, we expect the pending DFS (due late SepQ'18) to articulate a sensible development plan, which balances open pit and underground mining at a scale that offers robust financial metrics at conservative metal prices. The exploration potential of the area was also previously underappreciated on our part, with topography limiting the extent of drilling in the region. VXR has a number of targets in-mine, near-mine and regionally which present exciting opportunities and offer significant Resource/Reserve upside in the medium term.

    DFS update points to lower capex, and an increased production profile. VXR recently provided a DFS update (full DFS due late SepQ'18), outlining some significant cost savings compared to the Value Engineering Study (VES) completed in early 2017. The capital requirement for accommodation, mobile equipment, access roads, process plant and miscellaneous infrastructure has reduced from A$84.1m to A$65.4m, and we now estimate the total capex for the project (including 9 months pre-strip/capitalised mining) to be A$160m. VXR has also indicated a notable scope change to the project, with plant throughput now expected to be 1.25Mtpa (previously 1Mtpa), which has compounded the positive impact on our valuation together with the lower capex. We see no issue with the open pit or underground supporting the increase, and as a result our forecast production profile has increased to 34ktpa zinc and 15ktpa copper LOM (higher copper first two years). We also note that our mine life has reduced from 8 years to 7 years as a result of the increased mining and processing rates, and we envisage first production in the 2H FY20 (3 months later than previously modeled). VXR has recently appointed a debt advisor, and with completion of the DFS imminent, we expect discussions with finance providers to accelerate in the DecQ'18.

    Share consolidation completed. We note that VXR has also completed a share consolidation (1 for 15) recently, with the number shares on issue reducing from 3.6bn to 239.9m. The company has no outstanding options (11.6m recently expired out-of-the-money) and there is 6.9m Performance Rights on issue relating to project milestones.

    Valuation and recommendation. We have based our A$0.50/sh valuation for VXR on a DCF analysis (NPV10%) of the Sulphur Springs base metals project, plus nominal exploration value, net of corporate and other adjustments. Our valuation is diluted for total future equity raisings of A$70m (A$0.16/sh) in FY19, which incorporates an interim A$6m raise (A$2.6m cash end of JunQ'18) and a further A$64m as part of our assumed 60:40 debt/equity project financing. Central to underpinning the borrowing capacity of the project is significantly higher copper production early years, which positively skews cash flow up-front in the mine plan. We note that the project has exceptional leverage to higher metal prices (CG est. copper at US$3.50 by 2022), and with a company-defining year ahead, we maintain a SPEC BUY recommendation with a A$0.50/sh price target (previously A$0.04/sh pre-consolidation).
 
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$1.96
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