I just stumbled across this. As an FYI the Candian EMV rollout probably won't happen in any meaningful way until 2010 when the liability shift happens. There is a pilot happening in Waterloo (just south of Toronto) in October this year but it will probably be early next year till we see a lot of traction there.
Personally, I wouldn't touch Keycorp. The terminal business is becoming an increasingly margin based game. VeriFone's purchase of Lipman (and hence Dione) makes them clearly number 1 in the market. Ingenico are rumoured to be eyeing off Hypercom (no 3 in the US) and also trying to buy Sagem's terminal business (Sagem Monetel). This will give them a similar market share to VeriFone. There are rumours that Keycorp may look to get out of the terminal game all together. Keycorp are a niche player in markets such as Australia, Canada etc. Their devices aren't world leaders (refer to Verifone's new MX870 or even devices such as Fujitsu's B-Pad for innovation) and it looks increasingly like it will be difficult for them to obtain economies of scale.
The EMV rollout should help the terminal manufacturers however I just don't see Keycorp being a large beneficiary on the terminal side. I can't comment on the card side of the business (although the recent merging of GemPlus and Axalto leads me to believe margins are pretty slim here too)
Shonky
KYC Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
