Canarc corporate presentation, page-51

3rd Try :

Here’s a little bit of fortune telling to lift the somber mood on a quiet Friday:

As far as I am aware BJ is the most highly motivated CEO on the ASX. He has much more than just skin in the game. To me he has skin, bones, heart and a few arms and legs as well - he has $30m or more of his own dosh tied up in this company. He presents as a very experienced, competent and determined man who is absolutely hell bent on overcoming the various issues required to make this company a success. In my opinion, sooner or later he will succeed.
Despite the high probability of the soon to be released quarterly figures being a shocker I have various fantasies about the eventual outcome of this company. I am of the opinion that eventually this investment has a good possibility of being very rewarding, making the long wait well worthwhile.
Below I provide some (conservative) figures that help me to keep those fantasies alive, despite the fact that my investment is currently underwater by around 70% (as I am sure it is also for BJ and many other LT’ers).
To be conservative I have reduced my production expectation of LL from 1,000 oz to 900 oz/wk and as I have no knowledge of the likely grade of any new concentrate I have assumed that 50t will have the same gold content as the 40t from Polaris, ie 100,000 oz pa. The figures are obviously not precise but on the other hand I am confident they are not far from reality:

New local source & LL - without Polaris:
2018 Onwards:
New local source 100,000 oz pa 5 months
LL 27,000 oz pa 7 months
Tot oz's GE    127,000 oz pa
Revenue @ US$1,200 150 $USm pa
Cash Costs @ $750 95 $USm pa
Albion Lic, Office O'heads, Interest    5 $USm pa
Profit AUD$1.3m pw 50 $USm pa
Est NetProfitAfterTax = AUD68m, divide by number of shares ~ 85m = EPS 80c
Assume PE of 8 suggests SP towards $6.40
5 year wait = Possible 50 Bagger coming up ?

New local source, LL and Polaris (or another)
2018 Onwards:
New local source 100,000 oz pa 5 months
LL   11,700 oz pa 3 months
Polaris or other    90,000 oz pa 4 months
Tot oz's GE    201,700 oz pa
Revenue @ US$1,200 239 $USm pa
Cash Costs @ $750   151 $USm pa
Albion Lic, Office O'heads, Interest    6   $USm pa
Profit AUD$2.1m pw 82 $USm pa
Est NetProfitAfterTax = AUD111.5m, divide by number of shares ~ 85m = EPS 1.31c
Assume PE of 10 suggests SP towards $13.00
6 - 7 year wait = Possible 100 Bagger coming up ?

The above is my opinion only and I welcome any constructive criticism. I suggest that you hold on to your PGI shares very tightly as they could well become very precious further down the track.