Shaz, I'm not sure what David Blake's current thoughts are on acl. Maybe you should email him if you have concerns.
The last article on acl in Bioshares (28/7/06) ended "... remains a long term Speculative Buy...".
Some brokers have been saying that as Arixtra sales in the US increase, so will acl's sp. This is because acl's generic product would probably snatch a huge share of Arixtra sales the instant APP (acl's partner) starts selling it. So I guess this explains the lower sp.
The brokers don't seem to comprehend that acl's product will also take sales from other heparins, like Lovenox. gsk, the owners of Arixtra, have failed to dent Lovenox's hold on the market, despite masses of data showing it's safer & more effective. It makes sense that it's safer & more effective, because Arixtra is the same as Lovenox, but with a number of impurities taken out.
The problem for gsk is Arixtra is more expensive than Lovenox, & they haven't tried hard enough to sell it. Just ask Biota holders about gsk's marketing abilities.
APP are completely different. They are one of the darlings of selling generics, achieveing up to 80% of the hospital injectables market. Guess what acl's product is.. "a hospital injectable product". Some hospitals in the US buy lots of thier products straight from APP, so acl's heparin will just be added to their list, imo. It will also be cost competitive with Lovenox, as acl can make their version of Arixtra cheaper (& quicker) than gsk can. Infact I believe Arixtra is actually made by the makers of Lovenox (Sanofi Aventis) for gsk.
Personally, I hold plenty of acl, bought at about 80c. I'll hold them for the long term, & look to buy more if the sp falls to the 80's again, but I don't think that will happen.
I hope that helps.
ACL Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
