Crossy if you look at the last few qtrly's they have dropped marketing spend already yet the orders & revenue have increased. They have also increased the orders from ~4500 to ~19,500 and taken on only 1 extra staff member. That ability to scale is what also makes it attractive.
The KEY reason this business is so compelling IMO, is that the competition are literally posting their results (usually only a single police check) or the other online providers offer single check, and deliver in 48 hours. It's like saying the newspaper is a better way to advertise to sell your house or car. Being a person who has used both services (going to a post office, getting a check in the mail about 2 or 3 weeks later, or getting it online in 10 minutes...) i know which one i think will be around in 5 years!
Corporations need this information and some on a regular basis, it's a trend that will only increase (more compliance not less). If they can access more information (AML, Education etc...) quickly and efficiently and cheaper then it's compelling for the corporations to sign up. As it mentioned in the presentation around 62% are converting to paying customers, that is huge!
Not to mention that police checks are also the lowest margin part of this business. While they are the most commonly required, once you start up-selling packages the margins will increase significantly. Would you like fries with that?
IMO if they are using cash to expand the business domestically and more importantly, internationally. Then it's going to generate a higher rate of return than what the capital ultimately cost. I don't know anyone who has got a check in 10 minutes who is going back to a post office...
Always plenty of 'IFs' with investing that is correct, but if i wanted certainty i'd leave my money in a bank getting 2%. I prefer many multiples for my risk capital and given FY18 revenue is estimated around ~$40m, IF that was to be higher, or in FY19 it was ~$60/70m and NPAT was ~15/20m then on a 20x Multiple i'd be sitting on a $300m-$400m company. IF that was the case and say they had 250m shares on issue for that result, then it would be around $1.60 a share or 6x my money. IF that was the case... time will tell.
I just think this is a business with a lot going for it and one the market has yet to catch onto, trying to be ahead of the curve is where you do the best but also take the most risk.
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