1. CHF is the big blockbuster. 2. Teva is much, much further...

1. CHF is the big blockbuster.

2. Teva is much, much further along in partnership with Mesoblast than Celgene (well, I would not call it a partnership with Celgene yet).

3. Having Ben Zion Weiner from Teva on Mesoblast's Board of Directors is incredibly important.
And Weiner is not just anybody at Teva. He is the Chief Research and Development Officer..........let's digest that    a bit!

4. Teva is a much hungrier, much savvier partner. It shows in how they convinced the FDA to reduce the trial size.

5. I also think that Teva has a soft corner for Mesoblast but I will not get into that lest people think that I am stereotyping. Let's just leave it at that. Those who have done their research will know what I am referring to.

6. In my opinion, CHF is gonna be a go. The safety has been established. Its just a question of proving efficacy in Phase 3, which I have no doubt they will.

7. And here is an excerpt from Edison Research from Jan 2014:
"CHF is the most important of the seven different indications being pursued with the MPC platform, and with US$4bn peak sales potential, it represents the largest component in our valuation. The move into Phase III supports an increase in the assumed probability of success (now 50% from 40%). This is remains low for a Phase III candidate (and is simply a reflection of the relatively small Phase II dataset). The move sees our rNPV rise to A$3.0bn (A$9.06/share)."

8. They further noted back then that "The study should begin to recruit patients in the next few weeks and is projected to render final data in mid-2018".
Well, fast forward to today: We know what happened with the trial size. That should move the time forward at least to mid-2017.


Reference: The Edison research file
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/mesoblast3

DYOR.