can't see it coming, won't see it going

This is Mr Lincoln Augustus, first second cousin of Holymagiman.

There is a slight drizzle on this warm morning, and I can only watch with amusement watching Glorious Heart Mary-Anne, my second third niece, struggle with her maths homework as she tries to eat her breakfast. It appears that the joys of schooling will never change.

And that made me think back to the days I spent in Miss Madeline Pips class in school. She had no time for fools, nor, I suppose, for anyone else, for that matter. She had a rare beauty which set our schoolboy hearts awhirl, and a hard fist, which sent our heads aspinning. So she kept us in our places in school, and many a time I have had cause to remember her favourite saying, “If you can’t see it coming, then you sure are not going to see it going.”

And so it is with Metgasco. Those that did not see it coming are sure not going to see it going.

The writing has been on the wall for a long long time. As Baboo Runchik has pointed out, metgasco has relatively water free wells, much the same as in Alberta, and this means that the wells will be cheaper to drill, with less need for expensive laterals.

1. Much has been made of Metgasco’s “poor” gas flows. I have never considered the flows to be poor, and I have always found great comfort in the fact that the well structure resembles Alberta’s Horseshoe Canyon wells.

2. I would assume that in this instance, a typical well would cost about $300,000, and so $3 million would get you 10 production wells which are in production almost immediately. This compares most favourably with a conventional coal seam well with laterals, which would cost about $3 million too, but which would take much longer to produce because water has got to b drained initially. Not many people seem to realise the significance of this, and so, if you didn’t see it coming, then you sure are not going to see it going

3. As the good Mister Poyndexter has stated repeatedly, he has actually seen and swirled and smelt the condensate of the Riflebird – E14 well. That is most fascinating, and I can well picture the liquid that Mr Poyndexter saw so closely. Not many people seem to appreciate the enormous significance of this liquid and so, again, if you can’t see it coming, then you sure are not going to see it going.

4. Metgasco put out an update on Kingfisher E1 on 28 September 2009. Riflebird E14 flowed at a most encouraging rate in excess of 300,000 scf per day. I suggest that that report be read, and re-read, to fully understand the significance of what is about to happen, because if you can’t see it coming, then you sure are not going to see it going.

5. Metgasco has had a price spike in the last couple of days with an absolute increase in trading volume. There has been much conjecture about the cause of this. I find it hard to belive that a mere newsletter recommendation could make the share price move more than 30%. Two puffs of the best Jamaica Numba One may may make it move 10%, but to suggest that an investor newsletter was going to make a 30% change beggars belief.

Mr David Johnson must have had his tongue stuck so far in his cheek when he said that could have been a possible reason for the share price increase that he must be still trying to unstick his tongue.

It may appear to be some sort of accumulative buying by party or parties that would propel the share price the way it did. However, the hand may not be revealed, for about 9,300,000 shares have to be purchased to breech the 5% substantial shareholder mark. There are many parties who would consider Metgasco undervalued. Arrow, for one, have surrounding leases which are not in the same league of prospectivity as Metgasco’s. Perhaps another case of if you didn’t see it coming, then you sure are not going to see it going....... only time will tell. and that may be soon.

And finally, a random thought that the seismic data to date indicates a large field of approximately 25 square km. Perhaps the pen has been run over the seismic data prior to drilling and further conclusions have been drawn...who knows......

Blessing of the Lord
MLA.