Eshmun. Most analysts will use the CAPE (price to 10 years earnings) ratio to determine earnings during a recession. So I would use earnings of $130 in determining a bottom. This would give a SPX number of 1950, and a DJIA number of 17500. So 25% down from Friday's US close. Possible ASX bottom 4000-4200. Obviously the discounted rate in cash flow analysis will now be lower, that will also up valuations relative to earnings. It's an easy trap to get caught up in the hype, and remain bearish well after the bottom. Think John Mauldin, always looking for the second dip as the market runs higher buoyed by low rates and QE.
I'm happy to hold a core gold stock portfolio, most cash flowing nicely. Just make sure you can handle 25% downside from here without being liquidated.
Can't see NST holding its share price, page-144
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Last
$13.86 |
Change
0.570(4.29%) |
Mkt cap ! $15.92B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $13.71 | $13.91 | $13.63 | $79.37M | 5.751M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35544 | $13.85 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $13.86 | 28982 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| NST (ASX) Chart |