I think very high Inflation will rear its ugly head later this year (Which is good for POG) is because Fed cannot set inflation targets but can only influence it. It is done by raising interest rates which reduce demand for goods, thereby demand for commodity prices (which feeds into inflation). (There is no way Fed can tell commodity producers to set a certain price that sets inflation but it can do for bond markets short end for setting yields)
So ultimately, watching the commodity prices is a lead indicator to higher inflation. Bond yields etc is simply a reflection that bond investors want a return that more or less in line with inflation. So will we see YCC? Absolutely because there's too much debt.
Something has to give and ultimately which poison will they take?
1. Accept higher inflation (& Growth) but maintain relatively low-interest rates (through YCC) so as not to have companies with debt implode
2. Raise rates that will control inflation but this will make mortgages more expensive and stock market tank
Is there a third option?
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$14.33 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $16.47B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$14.58 | $14.69 | $14.32 | $54.59M | 3.795M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 667 | $14.33 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 667 | 14.330 |
1 | 10416 | 14.320 |
3 | 15425 | 14.310 |
6 | 12868 | 14.300 |
1 | 10416 | 14.290 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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14.350 | 10216 | 2 |
14.410 | 1594 | 2 |
14.420 | 10416 | 1 |
14.430 | 10416 | 1 |
14.450 | 12219 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
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Change
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