AGO 0.00% 4.5¢ atlas iron limited

CAP Raising Application, page-18

  1. 9,065 Posts.
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    Shareholders need to treat this like a totally new investment offer they have received and forget about their existing shares. If you treat it like that you will get the same perspective as anybody else that also can participate in the offer.

    AGO are mining some mines that are making a very minor profit at current prices, by slashing all spending to the bone. If the price of IO goes up the 14mt mined over the next 2 years might make $210m over the next year, and the same the following year. Then production declines. This $210m is spread amongst 3.6m new shares and 900m old shares, so 'worth' 4c/sh. But if that looks like happening the 3.6b options will be converted into shares at 7.5c raising $270m for the company.
    At the end of May the company had $58m in cash, yet use the 30th April figure of $107m throughout the financials. The non current debt is $333m, current as of 30/4 $147m. Putting that rosy scenario altogether the company would have a book cash value of 5.5c/sh in June 2017, but declining mine production, so money would have to be spent on capital for new mines.
    Doesn't look to good to me and that's the rosy scenario.

    KPMG on p59 say it so much better than me, considering the 55mt/a from Roy Hill, coming onto the market, BHP ramping up to 290mt/a and Rio going over 300mt/a, plus Vale's new S11D mine producing 90mt/a coming on line soon as well. Current higher prices are likely to be short lived, though KPMG say it like this.......

    "Depending on the outcome of the funding alternatives currently being proposed, were the recent volatility experienced in the AUD iron ore price to continue and result in a sustained decline from forecast prices during the period to December 2017, there would be significant uncertainty in the Company’s ability to
    refinance or reschedule the Term Loan B at its maturity and its ability to continue as a going
    concern."

    Basically as a potential investor, as all of us are, including non holders, Why would anyone with a sane brain touch this with a 10 foot pole??? Given the avalanche of new IO coming to market, there are plenty of better investments around, and not many worse ones.
    Therefore just because someone might hold existing shares in the company is no reason to make a bad situation worse by throwing good money after bad.

    Remember that if you send in a cheque and the company never mines again because the price of IO collapses in the next few weeks, the money will go to creditors first and there will be nothing left for shareholders, including the new ones. It is possible that the shares will never trade again if IO collapses but the company (or administrators by then) will still issue you useless, valueless stock.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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