CAP summary and NPV, page-259

@Tran - Dig deep into today's announcement from MGT reserve announcement and you will find some numbers to start having a play with.

Page 14 - Price (FOB destination incl. premium) = AUD$173.11/t used for resource cut-off
Page 3 - end product is 67.5%Fe and 2Mt of concentrate produced per annum.
page 22 - Assumed a benchmark 62%Fe price of US$100/t. Additional premium for 67.5%Fe of US$3.85/%Fe, exchange rate of AU$:US$0.70 to get to AUD$173.11/t. Other comments on prices and premiums on this page.
Page 23 - "The PFS financial model uses a base price assumption of US$110/t, CFR China 62% Fe Fines, in 2021.A price premium of US$25/t is used for the Razorback concentrate. This is the equivalent of a 29% premium, or a nominal $5 per % Fe. This is lower than the average premium per Fe % of the 65% fines product since inception in 2013 as a simple comparison."
Page 23 - NPV discount rate of 8%.

The quote below (from page 6) is what I found the most interesting. The detail behind this is also on page 23.

"The financial model includes all project level operating costs as well as initial and sustaining capital costs. The initial capital of approximately A$572 million is spread over the three years prior to concentrate production and represents the capital expenditure for the Ore Reserves case.The Magnetite Mines corporate financial model generates an after-tax project NPV of A$296 million inclusive of allowances for depreciation as completed for the Ore Reserve case. This does not represent the go-forward optimized case that the Company anticipates moving forward."

It is noted that MGT think they can optimise, but their starting NPV is A$296M - I'm not sure how much higher it will go when optimised. Their current market cap is approximately $250M.

I have seen comments to say that they prefer MGT because of the lower capital cost. MGT has a capital cost of A$572 (approx US$400M) for 2Mtpa of production - or US$200 per tonne of annual production. CAP has a capital cost of US$1,401 for 10Mtpa - or US$140 per tonne of annual production. I accept that CAP capital cost may increase in current dollar terms, but still a good chance it will be cheaper per tonne of annual production than MGT.

MGT's NPV of A$296M or US$207 is US$103.50 per tonne of annual production - this is based on discount rate of 8% and 62%Fe price of US$110/t.

CAP's NPV of US$1,091 or US$109 per annual tonne of production was based on a discount rate of 10% and 62%Fe price of US$63 (US$47 less per tonne than MGT). When a higher expected ore price and lower discount rate is applied - CAP's NPV will be significantly better on a per tonne basis.

Therefore, whilst CAP's total capital cost is higher than MGT, I think the financials for CAP will make it easier to attract funding for capital than MGT.

I assume that more detail will be in MGT final PFS, but from what I see, CAP is still the preferred project in terms of profitability, NPV etc.