Who knows how the market will react if the deal doesn't come...

Who knows how the market will react if the deal doesn't come off, it really depends on the circumstance. If shareholders vote against the deal it sends a pretty strong signal to the market of the value of Empired.

The tail winds of the digitisation industry are blowing very strongly post covid, low interest rates, and with Empired cycling into a period of strong performance one would expect that an acquirer would need to pay substantial good will for a successful buyout to occur. Now at the take over price Empired is at half the price earnings ratio of the Australian IT industry as a whole. I don't see that substantial premium being offered yet.

So if the deal goes through I get a bunch of cash which I have to pay tax on and then reinvest in an expensive market.

Or the deal doesn't go through and the market continues on its path of recognising the value of Empired, I don't have to pay tax, I don't have to reinvest in an expensive market and I can determine when and how much of Empired I want to sell.

I know which of these two scenarios I'd prefer.