Love the "Line of sight.... " phrase, reminds me of the Vintage (ASX: VEN) capital raising pitch deck 17 Sept 20, page 4.
So, who has done their homework on the finance position here? My question to you is: 1. Vali-2 and Odin well are going to cost how much to drill and complete? 2. The completion of Vali-1 (not completed yet) has blown out to cost how much? 3. Cervantes well is going to cost how much? and now no revenue until 2022. You may well say they have their Byron shares but that sort of contradicts the statement that the company is leveraged to Byron (page 3), regardless, lets have a bit of a look shall we?
So, back of the envelope, lets start with the 2 wells to be drilled in Q2 2021, Vali-2 & Odin (p17 of today's). Odin is the easiest one to start with. MEL farms into PRL211, paying 25% to earn 21.25% (Note Vintage indicates that this well was to be drilled in H1 2021 (p12 of VEN pitch deck 17 Sept 20, March/April), Metgasco says Q3 CY2021 (see Investor Presentation 20 Jul 2020)) but that really doesn't matter Net cost to Metgasco: $1.25m to drill and case plus stimulation and flow testing (page 20 of Vintage pitch deck)
2 New Vali wells Same VEN presentation, to be drilled in March and April 2021. Cost of drilling estimated at $5m each, total of $10m for drilling Fracture stimulation $3m each, total of $6m for fracture stimulation Total for drilling and fracture stimulation, $16m (excluding completion, tie-ins etc) Metgasco 25% commitment is therefore estimated at $4m (plus tie-ins etc).
How is our cash balance team? Well, we had $2.10m in the bank as at 31 Dec 2020 and $2.89m in Byron shares, lets call it $5m in liquid assets. Qtly cash outflows are running at around $100k per month so lets say $150,000 for Jan and Feb combined We haven't accounted for the completion costs of Vali-1 yet have we? Or the tie in. The completion cost was going to cost Metgasco $1m and the tie in connection a further $1.6m (see investor presentation on 20 July 2020 pages 7 and 10)
In short, we've got $1.25m committed to Odin plus $4m committed to the Vali wells. $1m for completion $1.6m for tie in (minimum by the way as the completion has been completed yet), oh, and plus Cervantes (pay 50% earn 30%, late Q1, early Q2, p20, July presentation) which was going to cost an estimated $7.4m 100%, 50% to Metgasco is $3.7m plus completion etc etc
Well, I'm up to $11.55m and that is only a quick skim, not even a deep dive. So, even if Metgasco sell their Byron shares, they need to raise another $6.5m just to meet these commitments, yet alone the others they have kicked down the road. If they don't sell their BYE shares, they have to raise $9.5m.
Either way, I think they are coming to the market to raise money, don't you?
MEL Price at posting:
2.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
