- these results might have been company-making in 2011, but HCV landscape is entirely different now
- 82% SVR not impressive given that current SOC in treatment naive non-cirrhotic Asian G1 HCV (BIT's study population) would be expected to be 100%
- current SOC is pan-genotypic and at 12 weeks average treatment length with little or no side effects there is little to be gained by 'shortening of treatment duration'
- current treatment failures are almost entirely in patients with poor compliance (hardly going to be helped by adding further pills to the regimen) or cirrhotic treatment experienced patients where there is no evidence BIT225 has any effect at all - how long will it take to prove there is effect in these patients? Years.
- current treatment regimens now available for $2000 or less through 'grey' channels from Asian generics manufacturers
- France is aiming to eradicate all HCV by 2020, other Western countries in a few years thereafter - market rapidly disappearing (questionable whether money can be made in 3rd world populations c.f. malaria)
If I was a shareholder I'd be demanding that management show me the partnering deal now, and if they are not able to then I'd demand they close HCV and direct all resources at HIV immediately. Shareholder wealth will only be continually eroding by continuing down a dead-end alley.
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