newswire for your info. I disagree with UBS this time simply...

newswire for your info.  I disagree with UBS this time simply because I had similar numbers when gold was falling through 1350, but now that its 1600plus, margin and cashflow and profitability improving, assuming production is met, NCM can just let the cashflow do the work as its rising in theory faster than retranslation and interest is falling

No order out loud

• EPS are expanding
• Margins significantly expanded since UBS first rose Lihir uncertainty
• Just like on the way down, the cycle appears to have turned and NCM should write back some of its imparement charges.  That in itself will lower the debt to equity
• Reserve value increases with POG above their own forecast
• AUD falling supporting their long term values which were previously stressed at 90 cent
• EVn value has increased significantly
• Debt to Equity should fall as equity value is written back up
• Credit upgrade should follow as the assumptions are now incorrect and Gold is way above AUD forecasts in ratings negativitiy
• Rates continue to fall on its variable Debt
• Stockpiles only resently uneconomic to process are now valuable
• Oil fall since Jan big, on top of 46 Pc fall in second half so future hedge should see smoother margins

No need imo, unless they have a production issue, they are ahead on their sensitivities enough to put money away for Capex at Lihir, at present Cadia is supposed to crank.


Anyhoo, this is what they think

DJ Time for Newcrest to Tap Market After Gold-Stock Rally? -- Market Talk
  2352 GMT [Dow Jones]--It may be time for Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) to take
advantage of the recent gold-stock rally and tap the market for new funds, says UBS.
Australian gold equities, like many of their peers elsewhere, have rallied strongly in
recent weeks thanks to an improvement in gold-market sentiment and a falling AUD.
"However, gold-price sentiment and the AUD can fluctuate quickly, so we ask the
question, should NCM take advantage of the recent rally to raise capital and reduce
debt?" says analyst Jo Battershill. He notes seven Canadian gold mining companies
have raised a collective C$1 billion and says NCM should consider such a move given the
need for funds for its Lihir expansion. Battershill says the mining company could raise
as much as A$1.4 billion through issuing 115 million shares, and cut its gearing to 27%
from 38%. UBS retains a sell rating on NCM, with a price target of A$8.20. NCM trades
down 2.3% at A$13.49. ([email protected])

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  January 26, 2015 18:58 ET (23:58 GMT)
  Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Tuesday 27 January 2015 10:58:00.000 AEST