A key point that no one on this thread seems to be talking about is that LMB is desperately short of cash. At sept 30, they only had $800k in cash, plus were hopeful of another $800k R&D tax concession. They stated on Sept 30, that they expected cash spend this quarter to be as low is $700k, but I think due diligence expenses and legal expenses will likely have meant that cash burn this quarter is significantly higher than $700k. They possibly have less than $500k in the kitty right now, but it is hard to know for sure. In any event, even if Hengda repays the $2.3mill in the next few weeks, LMB will still likely have to do a pretty hefty capital raising early in the new year from a position of extreme weakness.
If you can believe everything management is saying, then LMB should limp along for a while and then eventually prosper. There is no denying that there is considerable upside potential in the graphite space in general. But I would proffer the suggestion that most sophisticated and institutional investors, as well as most analysts, are highly skeptical about much of information that LMB has realeased to the market this year. Certainly many of LMB's annoucements this year look to be full of fluff. Given this credibility gap, any successful raising is likely to be at a huge discount to the current SP.
Given the quality of LMB's announcements to date, given the very early stage of their development, and given the nature of their Chinese counter parties, LMB's "binding" offtake agreements with so-called "minimum prices locked in" simply don't pass the smell test. This doesn't mean that these agreements don't exist, but rather that they just don't mean much, and thus dont add genuine value to the company.
IMO, the survival of LMB (at least in its current form) beyond the next quarter will depend in large part upon whether or not investors take LMB management at their word and enthusiastically embrace the next raising, which is likely to be very soon.
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