Capital Raising, page-16

My reading of it as well Go-South, although I was of the view to raise the minimum amount pre-appraisal, based just on the
"numbers" and from a SH'S perspective entirely--ride the risk/reward scenario a bit closer to the wind than management.
Management, from my reading, are of the view to go into appraisal {and beyond the first 3 wells} as fully funded as possible.
You could effectively say that the $33m cash mid year will be allocated to the first 3 A&E wells {FAR's share 16.7% paying
interest of $200m budgeted}. IF the wells go off without a hitch and planned drilling times/costs are achieved then we
could be looking at as little as $25m --I am assuming only one of the appraisal wells is flow tested {60 days @$950k
per day}, the other appraisal well is 35 days x $950k and the exploratory well comes in at 55 days x $950k {assume
extensive testing/coring etc as it represents a new reservoir. However, as usual, it is best to budget for cost-over runs
etc so theoretically, write that $33m cash off by the end of the 3 well A&E program. In the interim, admin & other licence
expenses to be paid, seismic for GB & Rufisque, Sangamor Deep East etc and the most costly {if/when it comes to fruition}
will be the much discussed farm in to new acreage.

Once again, most of these costs will be ongoing and it would not be unreasonable to assume that AFTER the 1st appraisal well
we could still have $15m cash in the bank. It was on this basis that I argued {considering perhaps a > 80% COS on appraisal}
that we should raise a fair whack upon successful appraisal results at a higher SP/less dilution etc. CN's comment on this was....
"Possibly"..... This comment suggested to me that you would want a lot more than $15m in the bank after the 1st appraisal well if
you only thought it a "possibility" of raising on good results. Sitting at the table with the JV after A&E with $40-$50m was
mentioned a few times. All is open to interpretation of course but it is a matter of WHEN, not IF they raise imo and I think they
will be raising on the high side v low side of expectations pre-appraisal.

Release of rig contracts rates/new acreage {especially if can be combined & released simultaneously} may see a spike back to
the 10-10.5c range. This should be pretty soon if musings at the IP are anything to go by. Probably will be offered at a discount
to get it away so my guess would be around the 9c level. SP may settle at or below this level post raise--options issues post July
1 @30% premium last 5 trading days VWAP = 11.5-12c exercise price. Then the "long" wait till spud on October 1. Hopefully if
sentiment/POO is good we may trade at about 12-14c close to spud date of Oct 1.

Crystal ball gazing is always fraught with problems but that would be my punt on how things may transpire over the coming
month or so.

GLTAH