LYC 2.37% $7.78 lynas rare earths limited

Capital raising?, page-28

  1. 30,924 Posts.
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    Surely that is what makes the shares worthless? If the company has no prospects of ever being able to repay the debt? Because I doubt very much that there will be any dividends until the debt is repaid, Mt K and JARE will agree on that one, I'm sure!

    Based on the financials Lynas need a 25% across the board price rise just to break even cash flow wise (Net cash out for the year -8.7m plus 37.6m for interest). A doubling of prices would give free cash of c. $150m, enough to pay off the loans in three and a half years. A 50% increase would take ~eight years to repay the debt.

    If there was any certainty about the prices (of everything) doubling very soon, there would be some light at the end of the tunnel, but as it is, with the company stating that low prices and price volatility are risks for the company, how do you justify remaining invested in the company?

    So far, JARE have been happy for shareholders to continue to support the company's extra capital costs and losses with the last six to eight CRs (since the company's first "no more funds needed to completion" announcement) to get the LAMP running close to total capacity - and perhaps capable of running at nameplate if prices of LaCe were good enough. If Lynas needs new capital, will shareholders cough up again? We already have a good idea as to how JARE feel about there loans being subordinated from the 2014 renegotiation, and Mt K. are unlikely to let anyone else get ahead of them in the queue, so that will be a tricky one to achieve.
 
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$7.78
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