LYC 3.35% $8.02 lynas rare earths limited

Capital raising?, page-81

  1. 19,586 Posts.
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    Perhaps a little out of context, but ltl's copied CJ's uninformed criticism of LAMP across onto the NTU forum and added his own garbage. I replied there as I couldn't find the original post, of course I got deleted. Anyway, dragged it back here as it covers a number of issues CJ & ltl's clearly do not understand:

    "Simple fact is the basic process works, Rhodia taught the Chinese 30 yrs or so ago, and while some of the chemistry has been refined the process in China hasn't changed greatly, and the Chinese have been constantly researching. If anyone wants Rhodia's A. Rollat presentation on SX comparisons let me know.

    You can point at all the magic puddings you wish, all the glossies & SP pumps you can find, but point me at just ONE in commercial operation at any decent scale. Just ONE ltl's, just ONE REO separation plant you think is doing better than Lynas LAMP?

    Dear old Moly wasn't so different, had 50 yrs experience with Mt Pass ore, and couldn't get the clunker past a concentrate. Tell me who's even built & commissioned a successful separation facility in the real world, not the colourful world of bench tests & pilots in PDF land?

    Two aspects that you & CJ plainly do not understand:

    1/ While LAMP was designed to operate with proven Chinese tech it was built at a scale WAY beyond anything the Chinese have ever attempted, before or since, (Baotou recently commissioned a 3ktpa "pilot" for what might be an attempt at a LAMP scale operation in 2/3yrs), and I'm going to presume you understand the term "economies of scale". If not you are about to find out over coming Q's as Lynas ramps 100% of the asset beyond "nameplate", and already they are among the lowest cost Chinese producers.
    To operate cost effectively at such a massive scale the LAMP needed to be highly automated, Chinese visitors TODAY are still stunned at the level of automation, and if you had any understanding of the material flow & control issues involved you might understand the significance. And they were 99% of the issues behind the protracted start up, material flow & control, not the level of automation.
    The other distinct advantage to the LAMP was the environmental controls designed in from the ground up, specific to Mt Weld ore, specific to LAMP operation, now fully proven by 24/7 monitoring to the satisfaction of the Permanent Operating License being recently renewed. Ltl's point me at just ONE REO separation facility in commercial operation that has an environmental record that even comes remotely close to LAMP, without running off to PDF land?
    And is anyone seriously so naive to think the LAMP today is exactly the same as the bright shiny new one that came out of the box nearly 4yrs ago? I can tell you it has had a great many modifications because I've seen them up close. Improvements in materials handling, flow control & quality control, product finishing & capacity, all driven by the experience of nearly 4 yrs in operation, rather different to the experience of colouring in the same PDF with a new box of crayons for 4 yrs or more.

    2/Who was Lynas's initial customer? Who is their largest customer by volume today? Why do you think Lynas can sell all it produces while the Chinese build stock piles & cut production? Who consequently can run a separation facility on a managed cost recovery basis rather than a discard, at cost, what you can't sell basis?
    Rhodia helped design the LAMP in consultation and signed up the foundation offtake, is it really so difficult to understand that large portions of the output, primarily La & Ce for autocat were configured to their needs? BASF also signed up offtake early and would have had input as to their La & Ce requirements to FCC. Consequently as dear Moly built glistening mountains of off spec La & Ce Lynas were selling product, a key distinction between the two, totally over looked, consequence of LAMP design to customer needs.
    The other main advantage from the Rhodia relationship was both their small, but complete separation facility at La Rochelle and the fact they were a major phosphors producer. The second part of the offtake agreement was shipping LAMP SEG/HRE to La Rochelle (has a bit of a Th issue so can only process clean feed) where they would toll separate, purchase the phosphors inputs, and pass the balance back to Lynas for on sale. The Eu values would have been Lynas's second revenue but for the demise of phosphors/HRE in general.
    As to the garbage re Nd & Pr it is plainly nonsense, the recently commissioned T4 SX circuit has full capability to separate Nd & Pr, always has had from design, and Lynas did a comprehensive cost/benefit analysis in consultation with the major Japanese NdFeB customers and came to the conclusion it simply wasn't warranted. Higher prices can be obtained selling PrO into the ceramics industry ATM but it is only 20% of the mix and that premium fluctuates over time. The decision was made to concentrate on high spec NdPr which can be sold into the NdFeB industry at premium, both to China & Japan, which together make up 94% of Lynas customer base by value, in equal proportion.
    The major area where the market has shifted, apart from phosphors, is the demand for oxides over carbonates, and this has necessitated some reconfiguration & innovation in the finishing section to accommodate larger volumes & product variation. To believe this has remained static since design is laughable.

    So easy to sit back on a pile of pretty PDF's, drag up ancient history without bothering to research any inconvenient facts in the interim, and the auditors report certainly makes no attempt to value four years operational experience & practical engagement with end markets, but I'll be waiting a very long time for a real life example of anyone doing it better."

    Regarding NdPr, Lynas has always produced minimum 99.99% "on spec", understand now achieving incremental premiums for higher qualities to customer spec, with recoveries running in excess of "nameplate" recovery rates. It's doing everything it was meant to do, and better. As the Chinese tech adviser stated: "LAMP/Mt Weld will produce very good REO at steady state".
 
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