It's a safe short. While the price can do anything while the markets remain in a bubble the actualy real-life cashflow for Qantas is only going one way: out the door. They will simply have to raise cash somehow before too long, that's a simple and undeniable reality. Covid simply isn't going away (refer to what is currently happening in the UK where they have over 80% double vaccination rates) and while some recovery is coming it won't be enough to get Qantas back to profitability.
Now consider that Qantas has a higher enterprise value (market capital + net debt, for the holders who clearly don't know what this means) than pre-covid and ask yourself: is the global situation better for Qantas now than pre covid? Of course it's not. This is a nightmare scenario for an airline so blind freddy can see that it's in a bubble.
It's notoriously hard to time the popping of bubbles. But they always pop. I'm just enjoying the popcorn with every $50m that Qantas incinerates on a week-by-week basis knowing that they're running out of cash fast.
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$6.74 |
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Mkt cap ! $10.98B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.83 | $6.83 | $6.69 | $42.81M | 6.343M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 106346 | $6.74 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1 | 10000 | 6.710 |
1 | 7461 | 6.700 |
3 | 6100 | 6.680 |
1 | 150 | 6.660 |
2 | 3002 | 6.650 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.770 | 37210 | 2 |
6.780 | 16000 | 2 |
6.790 | 120 | 1 |
6.800 | 16968 | 6 |
6.810 | 2944 | 1 |
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