I can't recall seeing Doug Casey research before. It is one of many such research groups that predict a range of possible futures for the POG.
There are at least four interesting points mentioned in what felt like a TV type infomercial to me.
These comments on it would probably be better on the Gold forum than BLK's. However the POG, as Goldmansach and others have mentioned, is probably 80/20 responsible for the current SP.
1. Peak gold production may have been in 2015. Arguable but given the lack of major discoveries and a drop in exploration expenditures the supply side of gold is likely to have an impact on price in the next few years.
2. A Chinese ambition to wrest control of the price of gold from western domination is probably real. As is the possible future ascendancy of the Renminbi/yuan.
3. The physical backing of ETFs and other gold investment vehicles is stated in the link to be so poor that actual requests for physical gold would likely have catastrophic consequences. No idea if this is correct but could be something like what happened with the GFC.
4 The link IMO states something to the effect that Islamic laws currently preclude the investment in physical gold but not the possession of actual gold. Apparently some means are being proposed to "work around " these laws [I didn't follow the concept very well so I don't know how to word the idea].
Such a legal change could supposedly allow major changes for the world's third largest gold market (Islamic after China and India) to invest in gold at the end of 2016.
Of these four 1 and 3 are probably close to the mark but will not likely have much immediate impact.
A combination of 2 with 3 is probably an unpalatable mix for "western" investors.
1+ 2 + 4 would equal a 'perfect storm' for a significant increase POG and any producer, including BLK.
The counter arguments 5 through X are obviously not represented in the link and these are probably what BLK's SP is actively reflecting at the moment.
Not the best time to do another CR.
BLK Price at posting:
46.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
