car 54 where are you, page-2

Hi HC, I don’t understand completely the headline of your thread (what do you mean with ”car 54”?) but I don’t want to pussyfoot around ;-)
(even though most of my initial thoughts re HGU1-1 results are already covered in the striking discussion of this great community …)

What I like is: “Interpreted gas pay in Wilcox” – if you decode their language, they used such a term in the past only if the really expect that the well will be a commercial producer. Therefore, I don’t expect that HGU1-1 will be a complete duster.

But obviously they have some uncertainties – It seems that the well is not cased for production test (but a retainer plug has been set). One keeps in mind that the costs for completion and testing a Middle Wilcox well are around $2-3 mln.

They avoid this investment until they gain more certainty about the chance of success for this obviously tighter reservoir zones. Perhaps they expect that they will have some development wells in the future with mixed reservoir qualities where they can test the commercial potential of the zones of poorer quality without a full financial risk. It seems also that a question is not only “if” a zone could be commercial but which one is it worth to focalize.

Unfortunately this also means we won’t have a clear result from HGU1-1 for months ... which is not a big help for assessing the potential field size … that’s a pity

Next week we will have an investors update from Simon Ashton at the Good Oil Conference, lets wait if we get some more comments about the status quo of the Gulf Coast program.