CVV 5.26% 18.0¢ caravel minerals limited

Caravel Copper Project - Bankable Feasibility Study, page-10

  1. 826 Posts.
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    I don't think what you stated is exactly accurate.

    The reason I monitor the Copper price is because obviously CVV is building a Copper mine. The potential for Copper shortages on the international market in the coming years are openly known. As i understand it, the demand for Copper is increasing significantly and the Copper supply is not going to be able to keep up. This supply/demand relationship is playing out in the uptrending Copper prices. An uptrending Copper price is obviously relevant to CVV's project.

    You said CVV needs to be "above $US 4.00/lb to be turning a profit", but i don't think that is correct.

    The Pre-feasibility Study did use an assumed price of $US 4.00/lb (as shown in below screenshot), but at that price the NPV is calculated to be $2 billion dollars (PFS details shown directly below).

    Pre Feasibility Details for 100% owned Caravel Copper Project:
    - Project NPV increased to A$2.0B
    - Project payback reduced to less than five years.
    - IRR increases to 21%


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5556/5556960-df9fa4fdbd3b2ef2e445915c99f98843.jpg

    If the price of Copper increases above $US 4.00/lb, then the NPV goes up significantly (as shown in below screenshot, about $1 Billion for every $US 0.50c/lb increase in Copper prices).

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5556/5556972-61d81e110896e2f6d75e18f974eb5af3.jpg

    However, if the price is a bit lower than the assumed $US 4.00/lb, then the NPV will also reduce, but that does not mean that the project is not profitable.

    As I mentioned above, the potential for Copper shortages on the international market in the coming years are openly known, and if today's Copper price is at about $US 3.90/lb (up again today, and shown in below screenshot), then it is arguable that the Copper price will be well above the price assumed within the PFS of $US 4.00/lb when CVV is ready to produce Copper (in the above screenshot, CVV also state that the price of $US 4.00/lb is a "modest assumption" and that "there is significant scope for upside on these prices").

    So accordingly, there exists a likelihood that by the time CVV is ready for production, the Copper price will be well above $US 4.00/lb, and that for every $US 0.50c/lb increase in the Copper price, the NPV for the project will also increase by about $1 billion dollars (as shown in above screenshot).

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5556/5556986-db7ccef35dd964b0077a4efec8c4ded6.jpg





 
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