A CARBON tax will have to be set at $60 a tonne -- three times the expected $20 tax to be set next year -- to force electricity generators to switch from dirty brown coal in southeastern Australia to cleaner gas to reduce greenhouse emissions.
Gas-fired electricity generation would not become a commercially viable replacement for brown coal in southeastern Victoria because coal is so relatively cheap and gas prices are rising, according to industry projections.
Industry and investment analyses have also found compensation lower than Kevin Rudd promised would destroy up to 60 per cent of the value of brown coal electricity generators, place the electricity network "at risk", cut power, create cost spikes and close generating companies.
Julia Gillard has announced a fixed price will be placed on every tonne of carbon emissions from July 1 next year in an effort to cut coal use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The key issues being debated on a carbon tax between the Greens and the government are the price per tonne and compensation for households and industry.
Confidential analyses conducted by global financial services giant Morgan Stanley and Victorian power companies examining Labor's plans, obtained by The Weekend Australian, find a carbon price of $20 a tonne will not significantly cut carbon emissions but will damage companies and push up retail power costs.
Morgan Stanley's March 1 report into the risks to Australian utilities from a carbon tax found the main risk for energy companies was from adding carbon costs to retail electricity prices -- "a potential increase of 15-20 per cent at the retail point".
The financier found that even if the full costs were passed on gradually to consumers, energy generator AGL would face a pre-tax earnings hit of $130 million and Victorian brown coal generators would face asset destruction of 20-60 per cent. The research paper said that without compensation the debt burden on the brown coal electricity plants would place "the network at risk".
No mention of Coldry in this article from the Australian
After the latest update on the ECT website some may join the dots and think ESI might just be onto something.
Interesting to watch as the sp goes down while the tech gets better and customers are starting to buy the product .
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