carbon tax impact on coal, page-7

"....the effect on CCC if anything will be positive - it's now operating in a lower tax environment compared to ASX peers."

I think thats what Jacky has been trying to express in their own UNIQUE way!!!

However from the looks of the way Gillard has structured this tax, which moves into an ETS in 2015(which will then start to hurt the coal industry IF they are still in Govnment unless the libs give the Aus Coal industry bigger concessions) then the net effect COULD be to force thermal prices up a la Huge's initial post on Citi Groups large future increases in thermal prices.

Its good to be enviromentally aware BUT has Julia looked at what China/India are up to???

This requires a massive response from alternative forms of power generation which still havnt reached the technical capabilities to plug the gap.Its a bit like using a sledgehammer to break open an easter egg.

The other interesting thing to watch is other countries thermal production capabilities.We have Mongolia touted as being a very large producer into the future as well as Indonesia saying they can increase production substantially,both suppliers of preference to China given their cheaper logistics costs.

Im not convinced that Citi Groups numbers are on the mark, another reason being India simply shuts up their buying shop when thermal gets above $120/T.

Much depends on the basic demand/supply gap effect that India MIGHT create with their massive power expansion plans.But then there are recent articles suggesting that this expansion plan may not advance at quite the pace the Indian authorities would like due to environmental concerns and we have seen as of late how strong the environmental lobby is in India with calls for some mega power stations to be cancelled as well as coal block concessions being categorised as enviromental no-go zones.

Lots of variables here to make a call on thermal prices into the future imho.Big call from Citi Group.BUT I wont be complaining if they turn out to be right!!!

d.