carbon tax no more?, page-16

AEB is a publicly-listed company. You can't tell me that if Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, PetroChina or any of the other oil giants (any of which could afford multiples of AEB's market cap like you or I could afford a glass of red to go with dinner) offered shareholders a premium for their shares they wouldn't sell. How many times have you watched takeovers? They're not uncommon, and the takeover price is generally not much above the current market price of the time. If they bothered, which they may or may not, they could easily choose an opportune moment and use some creative tactics to get in at a low price. Anyone who has been watching the market for a few years or more has seen it many times. Several times I've held companies which had great potential, and before that potential was realised I was forced to sell in takeovers. I didn't want to sell either, but once it's obvious that the hostile party has too many shares you can either be spiteful and hang on so that you can later be forced to sell out for less than or equal to what you were being offered to voluntarily take, or, if enough people are stupid enough to hang on when the hostile party has a controlling interest in the company you can allow them to drive it into the ground then take it from you at a small/negligible price. It's very rare for anyone to do that and I doubt the AEB directors are that stupid.

Alternatively, if you think any of the massively-funded oil giants couldn't replicate AEB's technology you're kidding yourself. It's true that sometimes the little guy comes up with a great idea that the giants didn't (though for every case of that there are many many cases of little guys claiming or kidding themselves into thinking they have something which is more than it is). However, once someone comes up with the technology it's very easy for others to copy it. So, they may not even bother buying AEB. If you think AEB has technology comparable to the LHC or that it is in any way similarly challenging to replicate, your mind is on another planet.

In the big picture, a hostile takeover is probably the best case scenario for AEB in the big picture.

Correct me if I'm wrong on any of this, but the Lufthansa deal is to fund one facility in Europe only, not to cover all of AEB's expenses. It's also just a proposal at this stage, no one has committed to it. AEB hasn't finalised their commitment (though obviously it's difficult to imagine them being reluctant), but Lufthansa hasn't either (if they have, correct me). I actually think it's a bit of a concern that after saying there was a proposed deal subject to both companies confirming commitment, nothing has been said for so long.

If you want to get excited and say you 'burned' me that's lovely. Maybe it makes you feel better about burning yourself by holding AEB. Are you up or down on your AEB investment?