Sdaji, please stop with the ramp. "Clearly, if it was there, the...

Sdaji, please stop with the ramp.
"Clearly, if it was there, the carbon tax was going a big part of AEB's income (whether or not it was going to exceed costs). "

I spoke (and posted about) the brief email exchange with PH. He confirmed, that at no point, has carbon and tax been priced into any of the feaso's. The project is profitable without them. He did mention that carbon tax savings / credit etc would be cream. So they have definitely thought about them, however my understanding is that they are no part of the numbers.

I think we all agree that the current price is frothy if you look at the fundamentals, as you would a normal stock.

You are ramping again in your paragraph re Europe.. The company has also stated that its well progressed on bond sales for the development of the recently announced MacGen plant.
Also, if I remember correctly, Lufthansa is going to fully fund their development. (Not having heard about this in a while is a little concerning. I would have hoped to hear about a site selection by now, at the very least.)

I am not talking about price, as I think there is downside unless we get additional news items (things will heat up even if +NP numbers are a while away, especially if its the fully funded Lufthansa deal).

Conversely if the results of the testing come back and are poor, or the Nowra plant produces some shocking news, then I would say its lights out. Even if its a process based failure that they can rectify.

Downside - Yep certainly is. Even up to a full 21c from here, assuming the worst.
Upside - Certainly. How much?? My crystal ball is on the Fritz, however it only takes one or two good announcements and we are off.

On a final note (boss will kill me for taking up precious work hours); I don't think these guys will compete with BP/Total etc. If they do kick some big goals re deals, I think they will be bought by an oiler or possibly a Siemens type player, should they get in first. I am with you in that I don't think they can hold out against some big predators once things start to happen. The only insurance is the significant holding by the main team.

My 2c. Probably wrong but my thoughts just the same.