"Electricity has gone up 9% because of the carbon tax and if anyone has got a rise bigger than that then they should look elsewhere for the cause. If Abbott gets elected and removes this tax I hope you don't think your electricity bills are going to fall because you are in for a big disappointment if you do."
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'IF' is a conjunction, that is to say that it is conditional.
'When' is a subordinating conjunction, that is to say it provides the link between two events.
I think that a more appropriate construction of the aforementioned sentence therefore should be:
When Mr. Abbott is elected ...
It is a foregone conclusion that gillard + co. will be summarily dismissed from power in the forthcoming federal election based on non-performance.