The next 18 months will be transformative for CardieX. The shape of the business will change dramatically as we move our technology towards consumers, generating revenue from royalties, SAAS and product sales more akin to a fast moving technology business than a medical equipment supplier. This makes forecasting the financial shape of the business very difficult, however as part of my due diligence I had a crack at forecasting the next couple of years. It's time to share, but please, a forecast is just that, a forecast full of assumptions and guesses. It is for you to decide if my assumptions are close to correct or off with the fairies !! And naturally it is positive, or else I wouldn't have invested ! No doubt a non-investor may see my assumptions quite differently.
I have not included any unannounced sales generating activities ( such as a new ATCOR algorithm partner, revenue from Blumio or In Health etc. ).
Information such as the target subscription fee for Arty of $10 per month, target RSP pricing for Conneqt Pulse of ~ $250, possible royalty fee for Mobvoi have been published by CardieX, and I have used these as the basis of my assumptions where information is known.
BHAG's I have made in these numbers :
1) Mobvoi decide to roll-out Atcor across more of the TicWatch range after a successful 6 month trial period.
2) Craig spends BIG on marketing on ConneQT with an aim to make it a household name along side the likes of WHOOP.
3) Retention rates of 50% on Arty after 12 months. Assuming you subscribed due to health concerns, you'll stick with it if info is good.
4) A PE ratio of 20, which would be at the low end of technology companies.
5) And of course planning on ConneQt Pulse and ConneQt Band to successfully launch with FDA approval, but with significant advertising spend to educate and inform consumers. Pulse/Band take-up to be helped by FDA accreditation leading to medical rebates for buyers ( as per recent announcements ).
So in summary,
A MC of $800M by July 23 and $2B by July 24.
However, I suspect that if the Mobvoi launch and Conneqt Pulse launch clearly demonstrate the successful application of the technology several more commercial agreements will be forthcoming that will dramatically improve this already extremely positive forecast.IMO.
This is not financial advice, please do your own research.
