Roadster I think that you will find 90% of the FM companies that have recently let staff go have been doing so from the development and cap trans areas.
I personally know of one that has only 1 person in their cap trans team and they are a very significant player.
I know ING have been losing allot of their development people. I believe AMP have been doing the same, with both development and cap trans going.
I think the staff remuneration will come down allot with VPG (all be it that there will be a number of one offs to do with the redundancies). This will accompany a drop in the FM fees written given (as you said they are primarily based on GAV. Probably doing better though than firms that had based on NAV).
I believe that there are a number of the Euro satellite funds that are approaching their LTV covenants however there are an equal amount with significant head room ie 20%.
Also I dont think that breaching of LTV covenants will cause too many dramas with the banks as long as ICR is there. The banks have much bigger dramas with funds & prop companies being at LTV's of 100% percent (to me 60% percent is probably the least of their worries).
I think the key for them is to focus on keeping vacancy across their portfolio low and make sure they keep a tight reign on any of the development projects that are nearing completion (I believe that there are a number in the pipeline in the UK). Lease and release...
I still believe that their is greater value than 4c in the CO all though the tranche I bought at a dollar is probably going to be underwater for a long time.
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