careful, page-80

Not telling haka :)

Yes, the few sales that have occurred have generally been a bit more modest.

Notwithstanding dire rental growth forecasts, I can't fathom a peak to trough fall of greater than 50% for four reasons.

1. The gloomy rental forecasts that worry the market so much are already factored somewhat into current yields.

2. According to the bear of all bears, Capital Economics, 90 years of data suggest that UK property yields typically should trade at a 150 bps premium above 10 year UK govt bonds. Today they stand at a record 550 bps.

3. Values on a rate per sq.ft are starting to head toward replacement cost for prime stock.

4. Capital on the sidelines will provide a floor. Funds have a finite investment period. Canceled commitments don't go down well - especially if your management fee was based on committed capital.

It may be a long road out, but 2009 and 2010 are lining up to be the best vintage years for UK commercial real estate acquisition since the early nineties I'm guessing.