Let's just say for the time being, that it is generally true, that is the 30%.
Now [(30-17)/173}*100 = 76% increase. Talking overcoming our 21 % dilution. There you have more than enough off set already. Wait! but there's more. What about the upgrade?
As for the comment on the Shorters missing out, I hope that is true, but my feeling is that most on average will come out of it not badly burnt as they would have averaged down from 11c (the last high). I certainly don't know the exact situation. Just educated guesses. Like to know where Bullant's figures came from.
KKW
Carin Announcement, page-10
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