Clinuvel burned through almost 10m in 2009, and with the...

Clinuvel burned through almost 10m in 2009, and with the additional trials, I would guess the burn rate in 2010 will be higher.

At 16.8m cash on hand, even with a burn of 10m again in 2010 (which is conservative IMO), we're looking at just 6m or so in the kitty at the end of 2010.

Since it appears to me Wolgen will no longer file EPP in Europe in Q2 2010, and will wait for the additional confirmatory trial to finish (which goes against what they orginally told us), then it looks like we could be facing:

1) another cap raise in late 2010 or in early 2011
or
2) a less than favorable negotiating position with a distrubutor

in scenario #2, the deal would probably be cash upfront to cover expenses (such as for example $15m cash upfront free for distribution rights which would preclude a cap raise) followed by a royalty rate that could be disappointing.

This is where all the delays could get us...

Either that, or they can get this filed in 2010 and hope early 2011 revenues will preclude the need to go back to the market for more $$$$.

But if they delay the filing, then in 2011, cash balance will be scrapping near the bottom at this burn rate.

Shareholders will not like another cap raise with already 303m shares outstanding.

Just my opinions.