PLL 0.00% 16.0¢ piedmont lithium inc.

Thanks for this.I was doing a sum of the parts valuation for...

  1. 71 Posts.
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    Thanks for this.

    I was doing a sum of the parts valuation for Piedmont and it's ludicrous how undervalued this is.

    Piedmont has a market cap of $1.008 billion.

    Piedmont has 4 assets:

    Project 1 (2023) - 25% stake in Sayona Quebec and 16.5% of Sayona mining

    Market cap of Sayona mining (75% owner of Sayona Quebec) is A$1.443 billion.

    Piedmont also has an offtake at $900 for 113ktpa spod with production commencing H1, 2023. At current spot prices, this will be EBITDA of US$550m starting next year.

    Value of Piedmont's Sayona investment - $719m
    16.5% of Sayona - $238m
    25% of Sayona Quebec - $481m

    Project 2 (2024) - 50% stake in Ewoyaa and 9.9% of Atlantic Lithium

    Market cap of Atlantic Lithium (50% stake of Ewoyaa) is A$420 million.

    Value of Piedmont Atlantic Lithium investment - $462m
    9.9% of Atlantic Lithium- $42m
    50% of Ewoyaa- $462m

    Project 3 (2025) - Lithium Hydroxide Plant 2 for 30ktpa
    NPV of US$2.2bn (A$3.2bn)
    EBITDA of US$346m (A$500m)

    Project 4 (2026) - Lithium Hydroxide plant in North Carolina for 30ktpa
    NPV of US$2.8bn (A$4.0bn)
    EBITDA of US$592m (A$850m)

    Just based on projects 1 and 2 alone, the market is valuing those assets (through the equity valuation of Sayona and Atlantic Lithium) at $1.181 billion, yet Piedmont Market cap is $1.008 billion.

    Piedmont also has about $160m of cash on hand as well.

    On this basis, the market is valuing project 3 and 4, which have a combined NPV of A$7.2 billion and EBITDA of A$1.35 billion at -$333 million.

    Thats right, it's a negative sign, so attributing negative value to this project which is ludicrous.

    Piedmont probably my pick of cheapest early cashflow stocks since next year it should be making around $0.5 billion
 
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