RED 3.90% 37.0¢ red 5 limited

Q4 last year is probably a pretty good guide to the next 8...

  1. 107 Posts.
    Q4 last year is probably a pretty good guide to the next 8 quarters on average except you need to adjust for the extra stripping (and probably gold price).

    Point is they generated no cash - BUT - strip ratio was something like 10:1 vs 4.5:1 life of mine.

    This equated to around $12m or more of extra stripping expense which was capitalised, plus some other one off items takes the capex bill to around $14m.

    So adjusting for the extra capex (which will not be spent in future periods), cash generation was actually around A$14m

    So for another 8 quarters of production we have 8*14 = A$112m cash generation value plus $8m in the bank = $120m total.

    In other words open pit is worth 16cents a share.

    I put the underground on top of this to get around 30-35cents of value for RED at current prices.

    But the underground will probably end up being much longer life and more extensive than current thinking plus the potential for satellite feed and higher gold prices - easy to see a lot more than 3 that.
 
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