CENTRAL PETROLEUM LIMITED (ASX:CTP) - CASH FLOW / CAPITAL RAISES 2020 - 2022, 45991313, page-2 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by aabbaadd: ↑

DUKAS COMPLETION PLAN

Dukas forward plan agreement is short term advantageous for CTP. It gives CTP possible free carry to total well cost AU$10 million redrill - reducing short term CTP cash spend expanding its short term financial choices. Santos, with Dukas drill success, potentially gains substantial future value for $3 million CTP carry - small helpfull current cashflow flexibility for CTP big future potential gain for Santos.

CASHFLOW MINEFIELD

Cashflow is critical issue for CTP providing motivation for structure of Dukas plan. End March 2020 CTP cash balance was AU$26.1 million with quarterly positive cash flow $300000. Quarterly figures vary.

OORAMINNA DRILL OBLIGATION

Ooraminna drill obligation was successfully authorised delay on basis Dukas drill data would better inform location and planning of Ooraminna drill. $10 million must now be spent 2021 drill or prospect surrendered.

GSA EVAPORATION

CTP only significant long term GSA is with AGL, smaller than Incitec GSA it replaced, ends December 2022. No more GSAs have been executed leaving CTP with unsold gas and underutilised NGP capacity. Expensive executive salaries relating to marketing of gas continue in situation where no gas sales are possible.

LOAN REPAYMENT / REFINANCING

September 2021 Macquarie loans $72 million due repaid / refinanced. Current LPG price collapse and local spot market gas price unviability are ominous for future prospects new GSAs. Gas price and market instability coinciding with timing of loan repayments do not provide necessary security justifying banks issuing new loans. Hostile fossil fuel pseudo shareholders active at CTP AGMs, and their associated corporate " eco warriors ", targeting financial institutions may also cower banks.

FARM OUT MIRAGES

CTP plan to fund exploration / development drilling $50 million through farm outs income producing fields is in jeopardy in collapsed gas prices market uncertainties. Prospective farminees will reassess market continuing unpredictability and future prospects very cautiously uncomfortable with clear current high level capital risks withdrawing alleged expressions of interest. CTP cannot fund its growth plan this way.

SEISMIC 2021.

EP115 requires $5 million new seismic which CTP has to pay 2021 to action plan to use the, to be located and contracted high pressure Dukas drill rig, before Dukas spuds 1H 2022.

RANGE PILOT / PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

Incitec have met their spend obligation. CTP must now contribute 50 % of all further pilot project and development costs - CTP to pay $20 million plus initially. Project costs will be much more.

PROPOSED SPENDING

Collapse in LNG demand and local gas prices indicate planned farm outs won't proceed leaving CTP without funding and series of financial obligations which cannot be met from cash $26 million -

1. Dukas redrill $3 million +

2. Ooraminna drill obligation $10 million

3. Macquarie loans repayment $72 million

4. seismic EP115 $5 million

5. new drill EP115 $10 million +

6. Range Pilot and development $20 million +

Total financial spend obligations $120 million.

Several of these obligations will fall 2022.

CAPITAL RAISE

Substantial capital raisings are only possible source of funding for existing growth plans outlined allready. With around 770 million shares on issue initial $ 120 million budget raise will be at 16 cents per share.

FARMINEES TAKEOVER OFFER

With CTP shares at 5 cents alleged potential farminees will combine in joint takeover offer at 5 cents for all issued shares at total cost $38 million - $12 million less than bidding individually $50 million for part of CTP. Cost of takeover is recovered, substantially, selling assets, and establishing CTP as an simplified ongoing dividend paying entity.

SHAREHOLDER SYNDICATE PRIVATISATION

It is far better shareholder syndicate privatise CTP at 5cps , realising asset values, returning cash to syndicate, establishing clean continuing dividend paying entity.

Not investment advice. Do your own analysis.

Expand

Santos have told NSW Independent Planning Commission it will produce gas in Narrabri for sale Sydney 4 to 12 % less than gas sold from AIE Port Kembla and AGL Crib Point LNG import terminals.

CTP strategic errors in delaying drilling and development works Range, Mereenie, Ooraminna, Dingo, etc., adds to corporate complexity and vulnerability.

Plan for farm outs to finance drilling and development is now definitively exposed as continuing strategic errors.

Time to bring this public embarrassment to and end.

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(20min delay)
Last 5.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $40.98M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.4¢	5.5¢	5.3¢	$2.456K	45.65K

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