Hi Conix,Ok ... I have finally managed to have a 'very quick...

Hi Conix,

Ok ... I have finally managed to have a 'very quick look' & I have done a 'tiny' bit of research into Thor (in no particular order) - say, haven't I seen those 'U' rock chip results somewhere else before???? LOL!

Firstly, let me begin by saying that I am NO Mining Geo Birdy., & I have never had any exposure to moly or tungsten. I do not know technicals & I only ever base 'opinions' on my own research!

Looking at the material prices there seems to be a nice increase in the global demand for moly (& tungsten) of more than 5%. I can see that increasing in the short term with the trend of more sophisticated engineering processes to develop stronger metals & alloys in higher value products like aircraft (Boeing 787 Dreamliner, 2009) & motor vehicles (2008, Mazda 2) chasing strength with reduced weight.

I notice the price of moly has been rising on the graph over the last 5 or so years including the huge 2005 spikes. Whilst it has come off the '05 spike it is still in an overall up trend tho. With global demand growing, & 75+% of the supply coming from limited mines in China, USA & Chile, from what I can see the deficit in supply from mining has (to the demand of moly) come from strategic stockpiles in Russia, China & the USA & those stockpiles are now significantly depleted, so there is no surprises in where we see the prices going IMO.

Overall...what a wonderful time to mine!!

I see the current reserves are for a ~4 year open cut operation. With an anticipated price & demand increase from current levels, the mine life could foresee-ably be substantially extended by further exploration on existing tenements.

With the 'Offtake Agreements' in place (thereby allowing a stronger financial plan), I can see the THR share price going well. Maybe those announcements could be sooner rather than later (as long as we're not talking CDU timeframes, lol)!

There really is a big problem in dealing with Chinese companies IMO. The answer 'yes' can mean anything of 1,028 things from my experience.

Now...I am assuming your C/F figures are correct & I have not x'checked them...

Your estimated future cash flows were as follows:-

8.4 million pounds of moly @ recovery 77.8%
1.3 million mtu's of tungsten trioxide@ recov 65.4%
gives us
6.53 million pounds of moly metal @$A41.7/lb=$A272.3
0.85 million mtu's of tungsten trioxide@$A285.7/mtu=$A242.8 million
total $A515 million
costs[say] 40% $A206 million
cash flow $A309 million

shares and options 136 million

cash flow per share $A2.27 over [say] 5 years

Current share price $0.19


TP Comments are as follows:

I don't know about the percentage of recovery & I am not sure how to determine that figure., but I would say that your cost figure is excessive by 10% on similar company comparables & the prices over a 5+ year period (starting from say July 2008 to June 2013) could turn out to be very conservative. I would also say that regarding the resource price (from my investigation in the reduced strategic stockpiles) could very well spike again as it did in 2005 as there would be no supply buffer.

So again for your costs, the 40% figure of 206 million would be closer to ~155 million even given variables like higher interest rates, wages, fuel & machinery, so your cashflow per share of AUD$2.27 could be quite conservative.

I could also see a very strong scenario that IF commodity prices DO spike it will/should have a substantial leverage effect on the Company value.

I have not looked at the Management of the Company!

Anyways in closing Conix, the TP opinion (for what it's worth) is that Yes, THR certainly looks as tho it is in a strong position atm!

Cheers, Pie :-)