thanks Pihrana.
yes I remember your dividend matrix. Great work thanks. Problem is the market will tar the divs with their same jaundiced brush of their long term IO price. To them the divs simply are not sustainable. We know they are (as long as IO stays at a reasonable level; say over $120). History tells them they’re not.
like you, I expect to actually recoup my cost and maybe then some in divs alone, so we have to be happy with that. As to the SP, divs will attract some new holders, but I’m just not sure the ones that count longer term, will move from their long held views.TI1 is my largest investment and I’m very happy with that. I’ve just eased my longer term projections of the potential SP.
now all that said, the elephant in the room is definitely the 5bt around us. THAT is what can make a huge difference to how the market view us. Big low grade /low cost ones still make money at the bottom of the cycle and from memory it’s in the 30’s% area? Some are under 20% and still are low cost. my view has always been that we’ll get into production and have around 8 years LOM (with the 2mt low grade we have now), then step out drills to find more high grade to increase both LOM and output. Then in maybe 3-5 years (wild guess), we get into the huge 5bt around us. That will need a rail line. Are you aware of the new Rail line proposed somewhere in the North, or north east? I read about it somewhere, but haven’t found it again, I don’t think it’s that close to us, but close enough for a spur line or maybe just much shorter trucking, for 10-20mtpa for a very long time.
that’s my long term view of how things will play out.
Hope I’m right.
cheers,
ned
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