I guess this current quarter will tell the picture. SG have you got any links to these downgrades?
All miners have cost pressures - that is a fact of life. Where it becomes a major issue is if you are a 1 or 2 mine company and you don't have optionality. When you have a wide mix of assets - ie NCM - then obviously you can deploy capital whereever it gives you the best return. I for one couldn't car less if production is slightly down at Telfer or Lihir. The bottom line is that for next 12 months , even if production stays at 2.55m , that's an additional bankable $765m over and above NP that is being made at $1380 aud gold - simple. If the gold price continues to rise as many are suggesting - lets say an extra $200 over and above current levels , then we have +$500m. The cash flow will increase more so via a rising gold price as opposed to rising production.
I would be interested to see what commentary is attributable to the downgrading analysts. Finally Morningstar has a long term gold price assumption of $800usd so they need to be placed on ignore.
NCM Price at posting:
$39.17 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held