Team,
Cash is King, being a chess player if Cash is King - then it's checkmate if you run out. No King = Game over....
A risk for FAR has always been a lack of capital, or for any company for that matter.
We are at a make or break time.
We 'may' have found a commercial reserve - however we are on the receiving end of a tight hole policy by Cairn, I believe the strict enforcement of the tight hole policy and potential delays in publishing information could be for one of two reasons, or both (both of which will never be published or acknowledged).
1. FACT = FAR is worth a lot more when a commercial well is confirmed.. CNE are trying to run us dry and is (as rumoured) offering to buy into FAR. In this instance the lower Cairn can run FAR's cashflow via staying on the hole and attributing cost whilst withholding information, the more prone to taking a lifeline FAR is. Without an annoucement as to findings (controlled via Cairn) FAR is rapidly being starved of Oxygen and quickly is put into check. (chess analogy).
2. Senegal leases - FACT = Cairn is sitting on very valuable information pertaining to the viability of Senegal's assets. CNE on a good find would of course want to withhold information to the public to suppress the value and interest of the majors as to the 'real' value of Senegal.
If the reason is no 2 as above which would absolutely be plausible and understandable, unfortunately it would also have the effect of no 1. FAR would be exposed and we would be in trouble without a lifeline, susceptible to a cheap takeover and or predatory almost bullying and or opportunistic positions by larger companies.
A cash raise now whilst a surprise to many is a godsend. If we have been successful in raising a significant or the full amount - we have just given the finger to any predators. FAR has just said we are good thank you and have just stepped up to any school yard bullies.
If the raise has not taken off - we are in trouble.
Personally I think the chances of success were written into the amounts we are raising. If FAR didn't have confidence, we wouldn't be going for such bullish amounts, we would merely be doing a repeat of the $8M style raises, enough to fill the fridge but not enough to survive the 'winter'.
Only Wednesday will tell for sure. I think we are good and I welcome giving the 'finger' to the predators. We personify the Cinderella story, that said a misstep along the way has brought many a company down, assuming we have raised the cash - many risks around FAR have just been mitigated.
Personally, I am holding and am in for the long haul.
I absolutely believe that we have found a MASSIVE reserve, with cash in the bank and a plethora of reserves in our bag - we are better positioned than ever.
P.S, I have founded two companies and been on the receiving end of predatory behaviour, being starved of 'oxygen' is standard play for VC's and is horrific but text book behaviour for investors looking for a bargain. I apologise to Cairn for the bias as to reflecting on point 1 but having felt the brute force of being starved of working capital, it will never leave me.
This story is just unfolding and I think Cath and team has just pulled a masterstroke.
With $30 - $46M in the bank, the following song comes to mind.
All my opinion, speculation or the effects of too many beers on a Friday.
Enjoy the weekend.
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