Cash position update imminent, page-2

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qball

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25/07/19

23:46

Post #: 39699565
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Originally posted by JB1975 ↑

In 2018 AVZ released the cash statement for period ending 30 June on 30 July, in 2017 on 31 July. So tomorrow (friday) or mon, tue or wed next week (perhaps wed most likely) we'll get the cash position as at end June.

From the last cash statement the expected spend was $4,477,000 and cash and cash equivalents were $12,066,000 so if expected matched actual the position should be around $7,589,000.

But some spending has been deferred (large water pump comes to mind) and perhaps some brought forward. Some belt tightening may have occurred in areas like the AG retainer.

I think the cash position will be getting sufficiently tight though that to maintain a safety/contigenency buffer AVZ will need to either announce something on financing (a deal on bridging finance to get to the completion of an access road for construction of plant and DFS) or begin to look at a cash raise (perhaps along the lines of the Patto's raise. It may be difficult to wait for Cominiere to have clearance to decide to release another 5 or 10%

It may be better to take some dilution pain up-front and to retain a higher degree of independence and strategic manoverability until after the DFS is completed.

AVZ has had a good couple of days share price wise. But in my opinion it is the coming quarterly report (and the days leading up to it) that is going to provide a critical piece of information. I seem to be out of sync with the general market on AVZ. The share price rises seem to me to occur ahead of critical information becoming available on speculative retail whimsy. For me two fundamentals to watch are the roads - road to manono thread - and the cash position. Because if AVZ can just stay solvent and in possession of the resource until the roads are available I figure everything changes for the better.

Perhaps this doesn't warrant a new thread. But I'm uncertain where else to put it. And I think the cash position is important enough a fundamental to warrant watching closely and to frame analysis around.

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My prediction is funding will come soon after the Met results meaning no further CR will be needed.

I suspect Met results will be held back until after the further 5% is attained (will make this acquisition cheaper).

I think the order of announcements will be as follows...

1. DRC sign off on transfer of 5-10% of JV entirety to AVZ.
2. 5 year tax concession is signed off by the DRC government.
3. AVZ announce outstanding Met results.
4. JV partners open their wallets and mine is fully funded (at least $160m provided in a variety of funding forms including contributions from CATL, Huayou and non Chinese entities) and all parties commit to bringing the mine into production within 2 years.

At that point the SP will be pushing new highs and we will all wish we had bought more at these levels.

GLALTH

AIMHO

AVZ Price at posting: 5.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
61 Upvote

8 Great analysis

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